Bearish Trend

Breadth, ADL, and Cycles

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The following chart shows the Biber Analytics Top 50 crypto index (BATOP50). The panels below show the percentage of coins above the 200-day moving average (green), 50-day moving average (orange), and 10-day moving average (red). The orange and red indicators show oversold conditions, but we could need another two or three days until the red line drops below the green horizontal line.

In mid-May, a price move caused the red line to cross the blue horizontal line, a buy signal. The orange line moved higher but could not reach the blue line. The buying pressure was short-lived, and the indicators have all fallen back into bearish territory.

The green line has often rebounded from current levels but can cross the light green line in a bullish uptrend without causing any trouble. However, the overall bullish trend must be questioned if the green line falls below the lower dark green line (not shown).

The start of a bullish trend is indicated if the red and orange lines move swiftly from a low reading above the blue line.

Advance-Decline Line (ADL)

The ADL counts the positive and negative-performing coins each day. If the line goes up, more coins go up than down, and vice versa.

The upper panel shows the color-coded BATOP50. Red indicates that we are in a bearish phase. The panel below shows that the ADL broke the mid-term uptrend (green-dashed line). Since then, the line has constantly declined (red-dashed line). The upper orange horizontal line marks an ADL low of the price low before the important March top. This ADL low was broken a few weeks ago, which is a bad sign.

The lower orange horizontal line marks the last major price and ADL low. The ADL is nearly crossing it to the downside, and its continued weakness is worrisome.

On the positive side, it must be mentioned that the BATOP50 holds up well.


There are different ways to calculate cycles. The following chart shows two methods. The first uses sinus waves to track the cycles. The mid-term cycle composite (orange line) shows that Bitcoin is nearly at the bottom. Some underlying cycles have already bottomed out in June, while others will bottom in late July. The composite goes up until Q4. After that, the rally should pause and resume in Q1 2025.

The blue line shows the second method. It has already turned bullish and will stay bullish until late September. After that, a correction is expected. The bullish trend resumes in January 2025.


Breadth and ADL show a clear downtrend. The cycles are at a bottom and should support a bullish stance over the next several weeks to months.

Price action is the ultimate key. The BATOP50 must change the trend. In a solid uptrend, the breadth and ADL will follow. However, those metrics are currently bearish, and a sustainable trend needs the support of those factors.

Thank you for your continued interest and support in our investment journey. I greatly appreciate your time and attention!

Disclaimer: The information in all Biber Analytics newsletters is not and should not be construed as investment advice. This is my investing journey, and I share what I do and why for educational and entertainment purposes.